Primary Tuesday in New York, Kentucky, and Virginia was a quiet one. There were no crowded victory parties or subdued concession speeches. There weren’t even many winners or losers. Instead of exit polls and vote tallying, reporters told viewers that they would likely have to wait another week for results […] Read more »
Second-Guessing Our Poll? First, Take a Look at How It Works
On Wednesday morning, The New York Times/Siena College will release its first national survey of the 2020 cycle, followed on Thursday by polls of the six states likeliest to decide the presidency: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Today, we release one element of the data: the methodology […] Read more »
There’s no sign of ‘hidden’ Trump voters
A new national Ipsos/Reuters poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 48% to 35%. … Even though the national polls were accurate in 2016, one of the complaints I hear most often about the polls is that Trump’s supporters are either lying or won’t talk […] Read more »
Trump has a point about the polls
As President Donald Trump tumbles in the polls and falls further behind Joe Biden, his campaign has returned to a familiar refrain: The polls are underestimating Trump’s appeal again. It has a point. Pollsters aren’t deliberately skewing their surveys against the president and his party, as Trump’s orbit alleges. The […] Read more »
Will The Shifting Views On Police And Racism Last?
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses how public opinion on racism has changed over the past few weeks and how this will affect our politics. FiveThirtyEight The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
How To Read 2020 Polls Like A Pro
We’re about to enter the thick of general-election season, which means we’re about to get a boatload of polls. Problem is, it can be hard to know which polls to trust or how to make sense of them all. But don’t worry — it doesn’t take an advanced degree in […] Read more »