The belated arrival of the party nominating conventions brought with it a slew of polls measuring where voters stand on the presidential race, and the conventional wisdom around those polls suggests they all say the same thing: Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump by a margin that’s generally larger […] Read more »
A Resource for State Preelection Polling
Post-mortem analysis of the 2016 election found that a failure to adjust for overrepresentation of college graduates was among the reasons many state-level polls underestimated support for Donald Trump. Voters who graduated from a four-year college are more likely to answer surveys than other adults and, in recent years, they […] Read more »
‘Hidden’ Trump Voters Exist. But How Much Impact Will They Have?
… The belief that Americans aren’t getting the real story about Mr. Trump’s chances for re-election has taken hold among many of his supporters. For Trump loyalists, it is an appealing story, and one with some validity: The news media, which largely failed to anticipate Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, […] Read more »
Another electoral college-popular vote split? It’s possible
New CBS News/YouGov polls from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to tell a familiar story. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by six points among likely voters in both states (49% to 43% in Pennsylvania and 48% to 42% in Wisconsin). Biden’s advantages in those states are nothing […] Read more »
Shy Trump Voters Depressing His Poll Numbers?
… Political pendulums can swing back forth quickly and so can polls. But one issue that has surfaced in the news media after some state polling failures in 2016 is the claim of the “shy Trump voter.” This is the assertion by some pundits and politicians that polls undercount Trump’s […] Read more »
The Uncertain Science Of Election Polling
With the presidential election less than three months away, people are fixated on polls. Biden’s up, Trump is down – but is that really true? We discuss America’s polling obsession. CONT. On Point, WBUR The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s […] Read more »