The polls underestimated President Trump’s strength yet again during the 2020 election — and, yet again, “Shy Trump Voters” who feel social pressure to stay silent about their views are being cited as a potential cause of the miss. So the theory goes, these voters believe that even strangers would […] Read more »
The Curious Case of Failed Electoral Polls: Four takeaways for political pollsters from a customer insights researcher
By Rasto Ivanic, GroupSolver By the time all the votes are counted, the ultimate margin of error may not be as huge as it appeared in the morning after the 2020 elections. However, it is already fairly certain that pollsters continue to struggle mightily with predicting election results despite conducting […] Read more »
Where Polls Got It Wrong
In the run up to the 2020 election, many polls show Joe Biden and Democrats with a significant lead, both nationally and in multiple swing states. As NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben reports, pollsters are now confronting the question of how far off polls were and what caused it. NPR News The OPINION […] Read more »
The polling industry blows it again
The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again. When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn’t go down in an election night landslide, […] Read more »
‘Guesses upon guesses’: Polls fall short again in 2020, raising red flags for future contests
… The underestimation of Trump’s turnout and support in many places, after similar issues in 2016, has raised again questions about the reliance of campaigns, the press and the public on surveys to shape the race. That in turn has prompted new questioning of the bedrock principle among political strategists […] Read more »
Polling outlets draw fire after missing mark again
The polling industry and election forecasters suffered another embarrassing election night that will call into question the usefulness of public opinion surveys and horse race political coverage that appeared to once again underestimate President Trump’s support. Votes are still being tallied in critical battleground states, meaning the final verdict on […] Read more »