Were the polls more accurate than expected this cycle? Why was there a foregone conclusion that they would be “wrong again?” In retrospect, did campaign methodology accurately capture how the voting public felt about the candidates, the economy, the pandemic and lockdowns? Featuring: John Anzalone, ALG Research; Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio, […] Read more »
Why Was The National Polling Environment So Off In 2020?
Heading into the 2020 election, Democrats were favored to not only capture the presidency but also win back the Senate and retain their sizable majority in the House. Much of that came down to the overall national environment, which appeared to be pretty favorable to Democrats, as they held a […] Read more »
How to Improve the Polling Industry
… As analysts and industry leaders work on fixes and corrections to ensure solid samples and better surveys, it’s worth considering another source of problems in the polling world—primarily, too many polls released today are basically propaganda and don’t offer any real understanding of how voters process dense social and […] Read more »
To Save America, Look at America as It Is
… Trump won the Republican nomination in 2016 by winning over the Tea Party, evangelical, and pro-life blocs, each of them determined to save America from Barack Obama, the first Black president. His enflaming racial resentment gave Trump an unassailable base in his party. But what the general elections reveal […] Read more »
How we know the drop in Trump’s approval rating in January reflected a real shift in public opinion
Donald Trump’s final job approval rating as president was 29% in a Pew Research Center poll released last week, the lowest of his presidency and a 9 percentage point drop since August, when 38% of U.S. adults approved. The decrease stood out because even some of the momentous events of […] Read more »
How to think about polling after 2020
The 2020 presidential election polls were far from perfect. They had President-elect Joe Biden winning the election, which is worth something. Yet, nationally and in every single one of the 18 states where the final polling average was within 10 points in either direction, Biden’s standing relative to President Donald […] Read more »