Those who follow the generic congressional ballot polls may have noticed a certain shift toward the Republicans in recent weeks. … But chances are there was little to no change at all in public sentiment about the upcoming election. The shift in the poll results coincided with a shift in […] Read more »
In Scotland, the polls got it wrong. Or did they?
As the U.S. blogosphere swirls with the arguments about the best ways to go about (or not) predicting election results, Justin Wolfers make a provocative argument today over at The Upshot in the wake of Thursday’s Scottish referendum. Wolfers claims that while the outcome was a “loss” for polling, the […] Read more »
Why Pollsters Think They Underestimated ‘No’ In Scotland
With two notable exceptions, opinion polls released this month about Scotland’s independence referendum vote gave an accurate picture: “No,” a vote against leaving the United Kingdom, was the steady favorite. But pollsters underestimated the extent of “no” support, making this the latest referendum with a voting-day swing toward the status […] Read more »
American National Election Studies receives $10 million in federal funding
The National Science Foundation has awarded $10.23 million to researchers at the University of Michigan and Stanford University to conduct a series of surveys on political participation and vote choice in the 2016 presidential election. The project is part of a continuing project, the American National Election Studies, that is […] Read more »
Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats
… Polls of so-called likely voters are almost always more favorable to Republicans than those that survey the broader sample of all registered voters or all American adults. Likely voter polls also tend to provide more reliable predictions of election results, especially in midterm years. Whereas polls of all registered […] Read more »
Survey says: People don’t trust pollsters anymore
Marketplace’s Kai Ryssdal speaks with David Leonhardt of The New York Times. Read more »