… Candidates who are losing an election will always attack the polls as flawed, or worse, and some voters will take their word for it. Polling might never be free of “correlated errors” — where pollsters make the same mistake in multiple states, causing one party to be underestimated across […] Read more »
2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls
… In October 2019, the Executive Council of AAPOR proactively convened a task force to examine the performance of pre-election polls in the 2020 elections. The Executive Council appointed 19 members to the Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling from industry, nonprofit organizations, media, and academia to ensure a diversity […] Read more »
How pollsters are trying to fix election polls after 2020
Polls in the final weeks of the 2020 election campaign were farther off the mark from the election results on average than polls in any election in decades, according to a new task force report released Monday. The analysis, from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, suggests partisan differences […] Read more »
2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says
Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). The […] Read more »
Looking at the wrong problem
… Now, I have been pretty clear in these pages that I think polling as a methodology no longer works the way people think. It is a rougher measure and can leave important groups out of the equation. It has value but it also has serious limits: It is far […] Read more »
Inconclusive Studies of 2020’s Pre-Election Polling Problems Could Be Good for the Industry
Key Points• Following another presidential election in which pre-election polls often understated support for Donald Trump, the polling industry is once again trying to figure out what went wrong.• An American Association for Public Opinion Research task force pointed to a lack of education weighting in its post-2016 assessment, but […] Read more »