David Weigel has a piece up arguing that Democrats have been so intoxicated with business leaders taking the gay rights side in the Indiana religious freedom controversy that they’re ignoring polling showing that the public agrees with Mike Pence. … The truth is that this is an issue where the […] Read more »
Stop Writing About Polls Comparing Obama to Frank Underwood
There’s a new viral political opinion poll claiming a fictional opportunistic sociopath is more popular than President Barack Obama. Don’t believe it. … To be sure, this says a lot about the state of opinion polling and very little about the public’s current opinion of a U.S. president. Public opinion […] Read more »
How Wrong Were 2014 Polls, Really?
An excerpt from The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election (Rowman & Littlefield): Democrats lost big in the 2014 elections, but in the aftermath, polling also took a hit for largely understating the size of Republicans’ win. While most polls and poll-based models […] Read more »
How Israel’s Exit Pollsters Missed Right-Wing Rally For Netanyahu
The headlines Wednesday said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swept to a surprising and convincing victory in the Israeli election Tuesday after his Likud party won at least five more seats in parliament than its chief rival. But the victory wasn’t really that overwhelming because of the subtle nature of the […] Read more »
Why the betting markets disagree with the polls
The betting markets, the pollsters, even the voters are predicting the Conservatives will edge ahead by May 7. However, on the latest numbers, Labour are the likely winners. What’s behind this contradiction, and what does it mean for campaign strategy? I conducted an experiment which throws some light on the […] Read more »
Dueling Polls Create Illusion of Public Opinion on Netanyahu’s Address to Congress
A CNN/ORC poll released last month reported that by a two-to-one margin, Americans opposed congressional leaders’ invitation to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress without first notifying the president. Just 33 percent said it was the right thing to do; 63 percent said it was wrong. A few […] Read more »