Attention, America: The 2016 horse race is on. Most everyone who’s floated the idea of running for president already has formally declared. And as the number of official candidates continues to grow, the more reporters will turn to pollsters and ask: Who’s winning? … So we wanted to know: How […] Read more »
Pollsters fret looming robocall restrictions
The Federal Communications Commission is catching flak from pollsters and high-profile political handicappers like Nate Silver over a new proposal to crack down on robocalls. The groups warn that restrictions to be voted on this month could increase roadblocks for those who conduct polls and survey research — two sectors […] Read more »
Support for gun control isn’t dead, new poll shows. It just matters how you frame the question.
Two years ago, immediately after the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown, Conn., poll after poll showed broad support for new gun control measures. … Today, gun control seems to be on the run. Gun rights is winning the day. An oft-cited proof of this new order is […] Read more »
Polling Is Getting Harder, But It’s A Vital Check On Power
There was plenty of apprehension at the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, which I attended last month, about the state of the polling industry. The problem is simple but daunting. The foundation of opinion research has historically been the ability to draw a random sample […] Read more »
Likely voter models and projecting turnout
Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates. … Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout […] Read more »
New ‘robocall’ rules could leave Americans in the dark
For many Americans, the idea of technology that can block automated telephone calls sounds like a solution to all those annoying “robocalls” and interrupted family dinners. But to the nation’s pollsters and campaign professionals, many of whom are gearing up for the 2016 election cycle, a federal government proposal circulated […] Read more »