The bottom is falling out of the Democratic presidential primary. And the top-tier — no longer five candidates, but three — is becoming more insurmountable. For more than a year, Democrats had approached their nominating contest with a widely-shared belief that — like Republicans in the earliest stages of their […] Read more »
Presidential hopefuls face a stubborn problem: how to bump Biden
Joe Biden’s fellow candidates have compared him to Donald Trump, dismissed him as past his sell-by date and gone public in unison with concerns about his previous positions on race, abortion and even his physically affectionate campaign style. There is little evidence that any of it has stuck. Most August […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics
Key Points • The Democratic primary race has been very stable, with the biggest exception being Elizabeth Warren’s rise to become one of the clear frontrunners. • Donald Trump is attracting primary challengers, but his standing within the GOP remains strong. • Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) pending resignation expands the […] Read more »
Favorability of Major Political Figures and Organizations in Battleground Districts
Pundits have asserted that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s progressive agenda threatens the Democratic Party’s chances of making broad gains in the 2020 election and beyond. Unsourced polling leaked to Axios suggested that white, likely voters without college degrees view Ocasio-Cortez overwhelmingly unfavorably—a population Axios deemed crucial to the Democrats’ future as […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Joe Biden regains double-digit lead over 2020 Democratic field
Joe Biden has expanded his edge over the Democratic field in a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, with 29% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters saying they back the former vice president. That’s up 7 points compared with a late June CNN survey. No other candidate has made meaningful […] Read more »
The 5 Days That Defined the 2020 Primary
For the 23 people now running for president as Democrats, there are good days and bad days. But, most important, there are big days. The days that keep the lights on. The days that fundamentally alter one’s trajectory. And these days often played out on television, and then reverberated on […] Read more »