Despite all the noise from both sides of the debate, when you run the numbers, it turns out that Donald Trump could win the nomination on the first ballot precisely because of the GOP’s delegate rules. Ted Cruz also benefits, but not until later ballots. The losers? John Kasich and […] Read more »
The Four Corners Of The GOP (Trump Owns Three Of Them)
… Thus far, the two best predictors of GOP voter preferences have been white socioeconomic status and an area’s partisanship. Trump has performed best among non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic status, especially in blue areas. Meanwhile, Cruz has fared best in more conservative areas, Kasich has run best in blue […] Read more »
What to Look For in Tuesday’s East Coast Primaries
Opinion polls indicate Tuesday’s slate of Democratic and Republican primaries are likely to reaffirm the leads of the two front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the results Tuesday night will be about more than simple momentum; they will tell us a lot about the state of races that have […] Read more »
Trump, Clinton face divides in their parties even if they win nominations
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton expect to strengthen their claims on the presidential nominations in Tuesday’s primaries, but a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll underscores the serious challenges they face to heal divisions within their own parties. CONT. Susan Page & Jenny Ung, USA Today Read more »
The Deep Grooves of 2016
In the 2016 presidential campaign, the first cut has indeed been the deepest. An examination of the 22 state exit polls conducted so far by a consortium of media organizations indicates that the patterns of voter allegiance that emerged during the very first contests in February have largely persisted since. […] Read more »
Election markets: A big upward swing for Trump, a consolidation of a commanding lead for Clinton
PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. […] Read more »