Monitoring Shifts in Presidential Candidates’ Images

Heading into Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary voting, the biggest shift we are monitoring in Americans’ big-picture look at the candidates comes among Democrats. Bernie Sanders’ image is becoming more positive to Democrats across the country by the day, even as Hillary Clinton’s sinks. I’ll get to the data in a […] Read more »

Three Lanes to the Finish of the Republican Race

The Republican presidential race was in the process of consolidating when it hit a jarring speed bump in a debate on Saturday night. After last week’s Iowa caucus, a growing number of Republican strategists had expressed hope that mainstream conservative voters would coalesce behind Florida Senator Marco Rubio in Tuesday’s […] Read more »

State of election markets: An interesting week saw Trump fall … then gain

An interesting and meaningful week saw Donald Trump fall after his results in Iowa and then gain after his results in New Hampshire (debate that is). Marco Rubio, after his strong third in Iowa, once again failed to capitalize on his moment by collapsing during the eighth Republican debate. But, […] Read more »

We Thought Marco Rubio Lost The Debate, But New Hampshire Might Think Differently

We here at FiveThirtyEight endorse the conventional wisdom, for a change. Like most other people covering the event, we thought that Marco Rubio had a really bad night in Saturday’s Republican debate, that the three Republican governors (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and John Kasich) had a pretty good night, and […] Read more »

Sanders, Trump Still Favored in New Hampshire

New Hampshire, as usual, will not be inclined to ratify the result of its early-state rival, Iowa. In open seat races, it’s natural for New Hampshire to zag after Iowa zigs: In the modern era of presidential nominations starting in 1972, there have been 16 contested presidential primaries (seven for […] Read more »