The Polling Paradox: How to Read the Numbers

Do you believe, as the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed this week, that Hillary Clinton is beating Jeb Bush nationally by a margin of 10 percentage points (51 percent to 41 percent)? Do you believe, as the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday on a set of battleground states showed, that […] Read more »

Among Republicans, GOP Candidates Better Known Than Liked

The GOP presidential field, already 16 candidates strong and brimming with controversy, features a large number of contenders who are familiar to Republicans nationwide. Donald Trump leads the pack as the best-known candidate, at 92%. However, the best-known candidates, Trump and Jeb Bush, are not the best-liked. That distinction goes […] Read more »

A New Poll Shows the Contours of the GOP Field

… There are as many ways to look at the unfolding Republican presidential race as there are people thinking about it, but one common thread is that the fight will come down to one candidate from the more conventional, mainstream side of the GOP and another from the more conservative, […] Read more »

Don’t Assess 2016 with Assumptions

A lot of conventional wisdom floating out there about 2016 is grounded more in opinion and assumption than in facts or data. And, as your teacher or mom may have taught you, “assumption makes an A.S.S. out of you and me.” Here are some of the most prevalent and pervasive […] Read more »

Trump surges to big lead in GOP presidential race

Businessman Donald Trump surged into the lead for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, with almost twice the support of his closest rival, just as he ignited a new controversy after making disparaging remarks about Sen. John McCain’s Vietnam War service, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. CONT. Dan […] Read more »

Fox News Poll: Reshuffling of GOP field, many agree with Trump on immigration

The latest Fox News national poll finds another reshuffling in the race for the 2016 Republican nomination, as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets a post-announcement bump and businessman Donald Trump claims more of the spotlight. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton still dominates the Democratic race. Yet the poll also […] Read more »