Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s image among Republicans has steadily worsened over the past 5 ½ months. His current net favorable rating of -1 (44% favorable, 45% unfavorable) among Republicans is significantly lower than his +27 (54% favorable, 27% unfavorable) rating in mid-July. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
Trump Leads, But When It Comes To Second Choice, Cruz Is On Top
While the media has been largely consumed by examining the GOP front-runner, asking about second choices is the key to understanding how the race will likely develop once candidates drop in viability or drop out altogether. In other words, who stands to topple Donald Trump once the field narrows? CONT. […] Read more »
Trump, Cruz, and a Cage Fight
… One way of looking at the GOP nomination fight is to think of three lanes or brackets: a populist lane—obviously dominated by Trump—a conservative lane, and a conventional/moderate lane (the libertarian lane that Rand Paul was banking on failed to emerge). CONT. Charlie Cook Read more »
California: Cruz surges to top in new Field Poll
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s growing support among California’s hard-core conservatives and evangelical voters has pushed him out in front of Donald Trump among likely voters in the state’s June 7 Republican presidential primary, a new Field Poll shows. CONT. John Wildermuth, San Francisco Chronicle Read more »
Election 2016 Predictions: Partisan Divide Deepens and Voters Remain Displeased
No election in decades has offered more cause for humility among political prognosticators than the 2016 presidential race, now just weeks from its first real contests. A candidate dismissed as preposterous from the outset, celebrity businessman and GOP front-runner Donald Trump, has commanded center stage since July. Jeb Bush, the […] Read more »
One year, two races: Inside the Republican Party’s bizarre, tumultuous 2015
The year 2015 will be remembered as one of the most bizarrely compelling and yet genuinely unnerving in the nation’s modern political history. It is clear now that there were two halves to the year for the Republican Party: BT and AT, Before Trump and After Trump. From January to […] Read more »