On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran speaks to Tom Mludzinski of ComRes about the firm’s polling among British Muslims earlier this year before speaking with Maria Sobolewska from the University of Manchester about her work looking at Muslim public opinion in the UK on terrorism and other […] Read more »
In Argentina, a Quiet Data Cruncher Aims to Bring Sense to a Raucous Election
With his fusty corduroy blazer, diffident mien and unpolished website, Andy Tow, an anonymous civil servant with a flair for data crunching, is emerging as an unlikely rock star of Argentina’s election season. CONT. Jonathan Gilbert, New York Times Read more »
Iranians See Nuclear Deal as a Turning Point
Although tensions are mounting between Iran’s president and hard-liners over their country’s future after the nuclear deal with the U.S. and five other world powers, the majority of Iranians expect good things to come from the landmark agreement. More than two in three Iranians (68%) polled in September — soon […] Read more »
Why the massacre in Paris might not help Europe’s far right
… Psychologists and political scientists have documented a link between terrorist attacks and public antipathy toward immigrants and minorities, but the nature of the connection depends on economic, demographic and political factors — which vary from country to country and from tragedy to tragedy. It is difficult to generalize, said […] Read more »
The Benefits of Random Probability Sampling: The 2015 British Election Study Face-to-Face
This post reveals the BES 2015 vote intention figures for the face-to-face survey and discusses them in the context of representativeness achieved via random probability sampling and efforts to interview hard-to-reach respondents. … Unlike almost every other pre- and post-election survey (including our own internet panel), the reported vote in […] Read more »
New research suggests why UK general election polls were so inaccurate
New research into May’s general election sheds light on what went wrong with the opinion polls, which notoriously all failed to predict David Cameron’s outright win. … The new study has significant implications for the ongoing British Polling Council postmortem into what went wrong, which is chaired by Prof Patrick […] Read more »