One event is set to loom above all others in this new political year: the EU referendum. It is an opportunity for pollsters to redeem themselves after their failure to predict the result of 2015’s UK general election but, as things stand, they are giving very mixed signals. CONT. Tom […] Read more »
Opposing Political Views Emerge in Face of Real, Imagined Threats
At home and abroad, politics is increasingly revolving around one fundamental question: are nations more likely to achieve prosperity and security by building bridges to the outside world—or by erecting walls against it? The dilemma is playing out in the U.S. with the rise of Donald Trump. In Europe, it’s […] Read more »
Will UK pollsters redeem themselves in 2016?
… In the event, the final 2015 election campaign polls from nine polling companies resulted in three giving Labour leads, three offering a dead heat and three suggesting Conservative leads – two registering one-point leads and the other a lead of three points – far below the eventual seven-point gap. […] Read more »
Terrorism Temporarily Turns Leftists Rightward
Presidential preference polls provide a clear indication of how American conservatives are reacting to the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California. They’ve basically doubled down on their America-first mindset, with large numbers endorsing candidates who express hostility toward outsiders such as immigrants and Muslims. OK, but what about […] Read more »
Migration Policies, Attitudes in Sync Worldwide
Before the recent migrant crisis in Europe forced governments everywhere to take a new, hard look at their immigration policies, a Gallup analysis of 136 countries found people’s attitudes toward immigration were generally in line with their governments’ existing policies. In countries where the policy is to lower immigration, 61% […] Read more »
The Polls May Be Underestimating Trump’s Support
Donald Trump’s persistent lead in the GOP presidential-preference polls has been a great source of confusion for the chattering classes. But Trump is actually just the latest manifestation of a more global trend: Data suggests the appeal of anti-immigrant policies to working-class voters is much deeper than most American elites […] Read more »