As polls pour out of early primary states, it’s worth examining just how complex and fragile those instruments are. Recently we’ve been treated to three polling autopsies that illustrate potential pitfalls: two about Britain’s elections and one regarding our own 2014 midterms. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
Polling Matters: The BPC Polling Inquiry and are we underestimating Donald Trump?
On this week’s podcast Keiran discusses the initial BPC Polling Inquiry findings with Mike Smithson. … Keiran and Mike also discuss the U.S. presidential race. Keiran argues we are underestimating Trump and Mike explains why he is no longer backing Ted Cruz in the betting markets. CONT. Polling Matters Read more »
Polling Memo to U.S.: Counting Conservatives Isn’t Easy
As Iowa voters prepare to kick off voting in the U.S. presidential nominating contests Feb. 1, an inquiry into the failure of Britain’s pollsters to predict last year’s election result is raising questions about the accuracy of surveys in the race to succeed Barack Obama. An investigation by the British […] Read more »
General election opinion poll failure down to not reaching Tory voters
The long-awaited postmortem into what wrong with the opinion polls in last year’s general election is published on Tuesday, and it points the finger at the pollsters’ failure to reach enough Conservative voters. Patrick Sturgis, a professor of research methodology at Southampton University, who has headed a team of nine […] Read more »
Can We Trust the Opinion Polls?
… In the first part of a series examining the role of opinion polling in British politics, David Cowling looks at the track record of polls in previous elections. He explores why their results matter and whether there were warning signs that should have indicated they were going wrong before […] Read more »
Opinion polls, like democracy, are the worst option … apart from all the others
Why should I believe what a poll says ever again? It is one of those questions that guarantees applause on Question Time. It is normally asked, according to polls compiler Anthony Wells, by “a middle-aged man, who looks very pleased with himself afterwards and folds his arms with his hands […] Read more »