… The referendum was sparked by demands from segments of the Conservative political elite for relief from the regulations of the E.U. in the name of national sovereignty. But focus groups organized for the vote revealed that most ordinary people had no idea what sovereignty actually means. Instead, the issue […] Read more »
What explains Britain’s Brexit shocker?
The result of the U.K. referendum on European Union membership has been a surprise and massive shock to so-called “expert” opinion. And not just to academic opinion: The betting markets, which are supposed to be inhabited by experts at setting odds, were assigning just a one-in-seven probability to a majority […] Read more »
Is ‘Brexit’ the Precursor to a Donald Trump Presidency? Not So Fast
Britain’s vote to withdraw from the European Union sent a shudder through the capital on Friday as the forces of economic nationalism and working-class fury forced American political leaders to wonder: Could it happen here? Driving the “Brexit” vote were many of the same impulses that have animated American politics […] Read more »
Trump’s Coalition Looks a Lot Like Brexit Voters
If the Britons who powered Brexit to victory were Americans, they’d look a lot like Donald Trump voters. Both camps are fueled by older, working-class whites spurred by nationalism and nostalgia for a bygone era. Their economic prospects have diminished in an era of globalization, and they feel that immigration […] Read more »
Alarmed Britons Ask Pollsters: Why Didn’t You Warn Us?
Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has left no shortage of losers: Prime Minister David Cameron, the pound sterling and the European Union itself. But it also exposed a familiar culprit: the pollsters. CONT. Dan Bilefsky, New York Times Read more »
Brexit: What Happened?
When considering the myriad of predictions before Brexit, when it comes to polling, financial markets, and prediction markets, there are certainly some bright spots and some concern: First, polling did pretty well, depending on what polls you cherry picked. … Second, financial markets did really bad at predicting. CONT. David […] Read more »