What can Brexit tell us about how our own election is going? Republican pollsters say not much: Unlike the Republican primaries, when Donald Trump led polls to disbelief from elites — not unlike elite reaction to Leave voters in the United Kingdom — Trump trails in general election polling currently. […] Read more »
‘Had enough of experts’: Why Britain is leaving the EU
When Vote Leave campaigner Michael Gove said that ‘people in this country have had enough of experts’ he was expressing the argument of populists everywhere. Today, as Britain and the world tries to interpret this unexpected victory, it is clear that nativist instincts and pent-up anti-elitist resentment can secure victory […] Read more »
Why the remain campaign lost the Brexit vote
To many people around the world, the United Kingdom’s vote, on Thursday, to quit the European Union came as a great shock. But the result, with fifty-two per cent of voters in favor leaving the E.U., shouldn’t have been such a surprise. … The Guardian has published some telling charts […] Read more »
How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday … and why
The UK has voted to leave the European Union. On referendum day I surveyed 12,369 people after they had voted to help explain the result – who voted for which outcome, and what lay behind their decision. CONT. Lord Ashcroft Read more »
Performance of the polls in the EU referendum
Seven member companies issued ‘final’ polls of voting intentions in the EU referendum. While no company forecast the eventual result exactly, in three cases the result was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three points. In one case Leave were correctly estimated to be ahead. In […] Read more »
The tea party spirit crossed the Atlantic during the Brexit campaign
… The winds of populism are sweeping across the Western world, and there was little reason to suppose that even an ancient and stable democracy such as Britain would develop an immunity to this pandemic. The mad-as-hell populism that in large part inspired the “leave” vote was instinctively nativist and […] Read more »