Sunday’s French presidential election was the latest in a trend. The centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, won by a considerably wider margin than most observers predicted, with a 32-percentage-point landslide over Marine Le Pen, larger than the 24-point margin that the final polls showed. But the trend isn’t that center-left globalism […] Read more »
Views of NAFTA less positive – and more partisan – in U.S. than in Canada and Mexico
The Trump administration and governments in Ottawa and Mexico City have indicated they will renegotiate the trilateral, quarter-century-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). While the existing accord enjoys the support of roughly three-quarters of the Canadian public and six-in-ten Mexicans, it is viewed less favorably in the United States, […] Read more »
Macron Won, But The French Polls Were Way Off
Emmanuel Macron’s 32-percentage-point victory in France’s presidential election runoff may end up being touted as a triumph for French pollsters, who consistently gave him a huge advantage. But it shouldn’t be. The polls leading up to the contest between the centrist Macron and his far-right opponent were the least predictive […] Read more »
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
The four-candidate battle to reach the runoff in France’s presidential election is putting pollsters to the test as never before. With just a few days to go before Sunday’s first round of voting, every poll for the past month has shown independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le […] Read more »
AAPOR/WAPOR Statement Regarding Intervention Against Pollsters in Ecuador
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) strongly condemn the reported government forced entry into the offices of the Ecuadoran polling firm CEDATOS. The confiscation of computers and the arrest of two CEDATOS employees — now released — appear to […] Read more »
World Polling: Every other country surveyed would have voted for Clinton, except Russia
Pollfish did some polls around the world. We have not had time to model and post-stratify them, so these are just raw polling results. But, Pollfish did ask a few validation questions, demographics and local party identification, and the data is reasonably representative. Every other country surveyed would have voted […] Read more »