On 30 May, the YouGov model for the 2017 General Election was posted here and created a firestorm. At that time, most polls showed double-digit leads for the Tories and nobody else was suggesting that the Conservative majority was at risk. … In addition to the public skepticism, insiders in […] Read more »
The U.K. Election Wasn’t That Much Of A Shock
… The final polling average showed conservatives ahead by 6.4 percentage points. In fact, Conservatives should wind up winning the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points. That means the polling average will have been off by about 4 percentage points. … While a 4-point error would be fairly […] Read more »
Global Publics More Upbeat About the Economy
Nearly a decade after the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, economic spirits are reviving. Many Europeans, Japanese and Americans feel better today about their economies than they did before the financial crisis. More broadly, in 11 of 18 countries from across the globe that were surveyed in both […] Read more »
Political Science and the 2017 UK General Election
Theresa May’s surprise decision to call a snap General Election for June 8th 2017 sets up a contest that may come to define British politics for decades. The work of political scientists can help us to understand the long-term and short-term forces that shape all elections. Changes in society and […] Read more »
UK general election 2017: Making sense of the final polls
Confused about what is likely to happen on Thursday? That would not be surprising. The polls have, after all, produced very divergent results. In the last few days, for example, one has put the Conservative lead over Labour as low as one point and another as high as 12. So […] Read more »
Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing this weekend’s UK polls
Keiran Pedley is joined by Ben Walker from Britain Elects to discuss the weekend’s polls as the campaign enters the final week. Polling Matters Read more »