The nation’s pollsters are facing calls for greater transparency and an overhaul of their number-crunching after spectacularly missing the result of the federal election. None of the major national pollsters accurately forecast the result, with all putting Labor in a winning position. Combined, Newspoll, Ipsos, Essential and Morgan had Labor […] Read more »
A polling failure and a betting failure
Well, that went bad for the pollsters. Every poll published during the election campaign got it wrong. I am as surprised as most. While it was obvious that the pollsters were doing something that reduced polling noise (and hopefully increased the polling signal), I had hoped they knew what they […] Read more »
Observer Opinium Poll: Tories in for a Brexit party trouncing, while Remainers abandon Labour
More voters now say they would back the Brexit party at the next general election than the Conservatives, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Nigel Farage’s party increased its support by three points to 24% of the vote, leapfrogging the Tories and trailing Labour by just five […] Read more »
Voters across Australia left asking: ‘What’s the deal with the polls?’
Conventional wisdom going into the election was that Labor would win, so Saturday’s result had people scratching their heads about the opinion polls. CONT. Gabrielle Chan, The Guardian Read more »
Australian federal election: Final poll wrap
The election campaign is finally coming to an end, with Australians to head to the polls tomorrow. AAP/Bianca de Marchi/Tracey Nearmy Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne The federal election will be held tomorrow. Polls close at 6pm Australian Eastern Standard Time in the eastern seaboard states, 6:30pm in SA and […] Read more »
The death of Israel’s left
… The same year Bill Clinton was elected to the White House, Israeli voters gave the social democratic Labor Party, the farther-left Meretz and the Communists nearly half the vote. Last month, the successors to those parties mustered only 13 percent. Why did the Israeli left collapse? First, one must […] Read more »