With the fog of political coverage you’re likely to see over the next week, I wanted to provide Roll Call readers with a simple how-to guide to identify important indicators on election night and what I will be focusing on as an election analyst when the first numbers begin to […] Read more »
Majority in U.S. Still Say a Third Party Is Needed
A majority of Americans, 57%, say there is a need for a third, major political party, while 38% of Americans believe the current two party system does an adequate job of representing the people. These views have been consistent since 2013. CONT. RJ Reinhart, Gallup Read more »
How to win an election these days? Be the most popular unpopular option.
We like to think about electoral contests as noble engagements in which voters pick between qualified candidates. That’s the ideal, right? Two respected community leaders offering themselves for consideration, debating the issues and allowing an informed electorate to choose between them. Uh, why are you laughing? CONT. Philip Bump & […] Read more »
Why the 2018 Election Won’t ‘All Come Down to Turnout’
The claim that an upcoming election “all comes down to turnout” is one of the most venerable clichés in American punditry. But it’s become more popular than ever in an era when the mass public is commonly characterized as consisting of two implacable partisan tribes, equally unshakable in their preferences […] Read more »
The Political Class Got 2016 Wrong. Could We See a Repeat?
… Although most politicos argued it was unlikely that Trump could win the presidency trailing Clinton going into the last weekend before the election, they forgot or chose to deny that it was still theoretically possible that voters could deliver a surprise outcome. Many are still in denial. Reading the […] Read more »
What Constitutes a Wave Election?
Is 2018 going to be a wave election? The better question is: “What constitutes a wave election?” … Despite district and state polls showing tight races, most Democrats and media pundits seem to base their optimism on the notion that winning a wave election is all about the base and […] Read more »