Conventional wisdom says that the winner of the 2020 presidential race will be the candidate who best turns out his or her base voters. Sounds utterly sensible and, to my ear, utterly wrong. Just remember the outcome of the 2016 election, when swing voters — many of whom had voted […] Read more »
Democrats may win their base with Trump — but lose independents
The Democratic presidential field hit a new watermark this week, reaching a record-setting 18 officially declared candidates. That’s enough for two baseball teams or three hockey teams. And there’s probably more candidates to come. … Time will tell how long this Democratic primary “team” sticks together in its mission to […] Read more »
Howard Schultz hasn’t thought any of this through
Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks chief executive and possible independent presidential candidate, has made himself a piñata for the wonkier parts of political journalism. Schultz’s basic idea seems to be that President Trump is bad, socialism is bad, the system is broken, and an independent Business Man will be able […] Read more »
Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think
Independents often are portrayed as political free agents with the potential to alleviate the nation’s rigid partisan divisions. Yet the reality is that most independents are not all that “independent” politically. And the small share of Americans who are truly independent – less than 10% of the public has no […] Read more »
Independent Candidate May Have Significant Impact on Democratic Party’s Electoral Fortunes in 2020 Election
Ever since former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announced that he is considering making an Independent bid for the presidency, there has been intense interest in how having an Independent on the 2020 ballot might impact the contest between Republican President Donald Trump and the eventual Democratic nominee. The Wason Center […] Read more »
How the Urban/Rural Political Divide Plays Out in America’s Suburbs
America’s suburbs have been competitive battlegrounds in recent elections. But a new UChicago Harris/AP-NORC Poll finds that, contrary to popular perceptions of suburbanites as swing voters, there are actually fewer true independents in the suburbs compared to urban and rural areas of the country. While the average overall opinions of […] Read more »