… In any single poll, it is difficult for pollsters to reach a significant number of voters who supported third-party candidates in 2016, making it impossible to trace their preferences now. And Mr. Trump — who faced vocal opposition that year from some prominent Republicans and won anyway — remains […] Read more »
Trump’s Self-Inflicted Wound: Losing Swing Voters As He Plays to His Base
Since the day he was sworn into office, President Trump has pursued policies and practiced politics with a single-minded focus on bedrock Republicans, showing little interest in appealing to independent voters. That has made him one of the most powerful figures ever in his party, and rewarded him with strong […] Read more »
As Is Their Habit, Independents Seem to Be Breaking Against the Incumbent
… What many don’t appreciate is that voters who consider themselves independent have a tendency to vote for change in every presidential election. 2016 marked the fifth consecutive election in which independents have voted in favor of the party not holding the White House, by an average of 4 percentage […] Read more »
Top GOP senator fears Trump is ‘soft’ with independents, urges shift in strategy
Senate Majority Whip John Thune sounded the alarm Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s support among independent voters was “soft,” urging a change in strategy in light of a New York Times survey that showed the president trailing Democrat Joe Biden by double digits. The Times/Siena national poll found Biden winning […] Read more »
Does Partisanship Affect Compliance with Government Recommendations?
… I examine three cases of government vaccine recommendations – Smallpox in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and measles in 2015. In the first case, the president, George W. Bush, was a Republican. In the latter two, the country was governed by a Democratic administration. Using survey data, I test whether […] Read more »
Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November
The 2020 presidential election just got its first notable third-party challenger. Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian. And while we won’t know whether Amash wins his new party’s nomination […] Read more »