Deborah Schildkraut, Tufts University Lawmakers in Washington, from the president down to first-term members of Congress, may be misjudging how the public feels about immigration. President Donald Trump appears to believe the country needs and wants hard-line policies. Members of Congress haven’t stopped him from carrying out those policies. Do […] Read more »
About that claim in the NYT that the immigration issue helped Hillary Clinton? The numbers don’t seem to add up.
Today I noticed an op-ed by two political scientists, Howard Lavine and Wendy Rahm, entitled, “What if Trump’s Nativism Actually Hurts Him?” … Now I was curious, so I thought I’d check the numbers. CONT. Andrew Gelman (Columbia U.), Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science Read more »
What if Trump’s Nativism Actually Hurts Him?
President Trump’s short-lived family separation policy extended the hard line on immigration he promoted during his presidential campaign. Many analysts believe that this strategy helped him win the election by politicizing latent nativist sentiment among white Americans. … Contrary to received wisdom, however, the immigration issue did not play to […] Read more »
A bad week for Democrats gives rise to a big problem: Outrage could become an obstacle in midterms
Growing liberal agitation over a pivotal Supreme Court retirement and a simmering crisis of migrant child separation have left Democratic leaders scrambling to keep the political outrage they’d counted on to fuel midterm election wins from becoming a liability for the party. Internal party debates have broken into public view […] Read more »
Nobody knows how ‘abolish ICE’ plays politically
On Thursday night, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) called for the elimination of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. By Friday morning, Republican campaign groups were asking whether Democrats who had taken money from Gillibrand — a number of female candidates in swing races — would echo the senator or denounce […] Read more »
Don’t Feed the Troll in the Oval Office
It is hardly news that President Trump has deliberately provoked liberal outrage, as a candidate and as president. But in case anyone is still wondering whether his inflammatory language is the result of design or impulse, recent comments from current and former White House strategists are revealing. Last month, an […] Read more »