In 2016, Donald Trump recruited voters with the highest levels of animosity toward African Americans, assembling a “schadenfreude” electorate — voters who take pleasure in making the opposition suffer — that continues to dominate the Republican Party, even in the aftermath of the Trump presidency. With all his histrionics and […] Read more »
A third of White conservatives refuse to get vaccinated — a refusal shown in polling and the real world
… A Washington Post-ABC News poll released over the weekend shows a stark divide in vaccination hesitancy by political group. Overall, about a fifth of Americans say they definitely won’t get vaccinated. That’s about the percentage for independents and Whites overall. But among Republicans and White conservatives, the figure is […] Read more »
Independents, suburban voters among the keys to Biden’s victory over Trump
The 2020 election produced a record number of people voting and the highest percentage turnout in more than a century. It was an election that cost Donald Trump a second term in the White House and handed the Oval Office to Joe Biden. What changed from 2016 to 2020? The […] Read more »
New 2020 voter data: How Biden won, how Trump kept the race close, and what it tells us about the future
As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well. Now, […] Read more »
America’s partisan fireworks will be hard for anyone to put out
While July Fourth is the holiday that most directly celebrates Americans’ common heritage, this year it comes as their extreme divides underscore how difficult it has become for any president to set a unified direction for the country. … Taken together, these centrifugal pressures call into question not only the […] Read more »
Yes, Democrats are bickering. But Biden’s wish list is gaining traction
As he pursues his $4-trillion domestic spending wish list, President Biden has had a lot more than Republican opposition to contend with. He has found himself squeezed between two wings of his own party: progressives who want the biggest possible expansion of federal programs and moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin […] Read more »