One of Kevin McCarthy’s first acts as speaker of the House was to take a selfie with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the far-right conspiracy theorist and election denier who has emerged as one of his staunchest allies. That image, which Greene immediately posted on social media, encapsulates the wager McCarthy […] Read more »
Kevin McCarthy’s flailing bid for Speaker of the House is not (only) about ideological differences
… Students of history and political science alike may note that extra-ideological factors are common in determining who wins leadership elections. Speakers have included both members near the middle and extremes of the distribution of ideological scores for their party, for example. Yet what is different this time is that […] Read more »
The ‘spoiler caucus’ is creating chaos
… At this point (Thursday afternoon), with 201 Republicans supporting McCarthy and 20 still opposed, 10 percent of the Republican conference members are dictating what the other 90 percent can and can’t do. … History shows us that political parties, wherever they are found, almost always have a few rebels […] Read more »
The Republicans’ Math Problem in Midterms and Potentially 2024
Politics isn’t all that complicated. It’s really just math. But, as those of us who were never big fans of the subject in school can attest, sometimes math can be hard. As I write this on Thursday, the most prominent political figure in America, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has a very […] Read more »
The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors
Key Points• This article is being published following the adjournment of the House on the afternoon of Wednesday, Jan. 4 after the body failed to elect a speaker on 6 roll call votes held Tuesday and Wednesday. The House was scheduled to return at 8 p.m. eastern on Wednesday.• The […] Read more »
A Thermostatic Model of Congressional Elections
Congressional elections often are considered a referendum on presidents. Popular presidential candidates produce coattails in presidential election years and can limit voters’ typical desires for partisan balancing in midterms. But the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats and vote share in midterms even with high popularity. We argue that […] Read more »