Donald Trump is running strong in the early nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire, according to two new NBC News-Marist polls. … Meanwhile, in the Democratic presidential race, the polls show that Hillary Clinton is ahead, but that Bernie Sanders has gained ground on her since earlier this year. […] Read more »
The Polling Paradox: How to Read the Numbers
Do you believe, as the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed this week, that Hillary Clinton is beating Jeb Bush nationally by a margin of 10 percentage points (51 percent to 41 percent)? Do you believe, as the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday on a set of battleground states showed, that […] Read more »
Why Iowa May Be Fertile Ground for Donald Trump
Iowa, home of the first presidential nominating contest every four years, is more than rolling cornfields. It’s a complicated mix of rural agriculture (the western half of the state), small-town union country (in the east), college towns (Iowa City and Ames) and a metropolitan center (Des Moines). And for right […] Read more »
Is Hillary Clinton ‘Likable Enough’?
Barack Obama said before the New Hampshire primary during his contentious primary with Hillary Clinton in 2008 that she was “likable enough.” The quip got him in trouble with Clinton supporters, but Clinton’s likability is at the heart of her candidacy in 2016. Clinton has a massive lead among Democratic […] Read more »
Scott Walker Had a Great Starting Position but Not a Great Start
Scott Walker’s rapid but unsurprising rise to the top of the Republican pack was perhaps the clearest example during the first half of the primary season of the importance of fundamentals: factors that shape the outcome of the race from the very start, like the amount of support from party […] Read more »
A Midwest Advantage for Scott Walker?
You can call it the Rust Belt or the Industrial Midwest if you like, but when presidential election time comes you should call it precious real estate. The seven states that hold the schools that comprised the old, pre-expansion Big Ten athletic conference – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio […] Read more »