… While it’s not necessarily surprising that there are errors and inconsistencies in the current tabulation reports from the Iowa Democratic caucuses, the issue is that we may never get a clear, trustworthy, and accurate tabulation of the caucus results. … And I keep scratching my head, wondering why, given […] Read more »
Beware of the Polls
As the Democratic race shifts into high gear and the fallout from the impeachment trial settles in I have a respectful and heartfelt cautionary admonition about polling data: Caveat emptor. Let’s begin with Iowa. Not one poll before the Iowa caucuses accurately captured what was happening. Most of the closing […] Read more »
Iowa Shocks the Nation
This week, we break down Iowa’s vote-reporting debacle. Then, we look ahead to this week’s Democratic debate and get the Forecast from Harry for the New Hampshire primary. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Iowa’s lessons for New Hampshire: How Buttigieg surged
In all the chaos out of Iowa last week, there was one bit of solid news. The results suggested two lanes emerging in the field following two different paths. There was a moderate lane with results showing voters consolidating behind one candidate, Pete Buttigieg, and a progressive lane that showed […] Read more »
Democrats look to New Hampshire after chaotic Iowa caucuses
Democratic presidential hopefuls took to the stage for another debate Friday as they looked for an edge in the lead-up to the New Hampshire primaries following last week’s chaotic Iowa caucuses. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, joins Hari Sreenivasan for more on the presidential race and […] Read more »
It was a bad week for unwritten rules. What does this mean?
The decline of norms has become a common criticism of Trump era politics. The violation of unwritten rules ties together some of the developments in what was an eventful week in American politics. The Iowa caucuses failed to produce a clear result. The president gave a Medal of Freedom to […] Read more »