How Iowa’s premier pollster sees the 2016 race shaking out

The release of new Iowa poll numbers by the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is one of the few stop-what-you-are-doing-and-see-what-they-say moments left in politics. The woman behind the poll, which gets Iowa right every time, is Ann Selzer. After the new Register numbers came out Saturday night, I reached […] Read more »

Carson Edging Close to Front-Runner Trump in Latest Iowa Poll

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has emerged as a leading Republican presidential candidate in Iowa and is closing in on frontrunner Donald Trump in the state that hosts the first 2016 nomination balloting contest. … Trump finds himself in a vastly better position than when the previous Iowa Poll was taken. […] Read more »

The Primary Map Still Favors Clinton

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been under siege for months as additional revelations and developments regarding her use of a private email account continue to drip out. Last week, the Crystal Ball explored what might happen should Clinton drop out of the Democratic primary or, as the rumors […] Read more »

The Most Important Story in the G.O.P. Race Isn’t About Donald Trump

Donald Trump is dominating the news media and the Internet. He is leading in the polls. But even as journalists scour those surveys for signs of whether his surge will last, an important story with the potential to decide the race is being overlooked. The Aug. 6 debate marked the […] Read more »