Donald Trump remains ahead in the early Republican nominating contests of Iowa and New Hampshire, but his lead has shrunk from a month ago, according to brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these two states. … Meanwhile, in the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton maintains her lead in Iowa, and […] Read more »
Iowa polls have a big problem
… Most polls that purport to provide Iowa caucus results simply ask each interviewee whether they are likely to attend a caucus. The tendency to say yes yields responses so highly inflated as to be worthless. … Unlike public pollsters, campaigns pay substantial sums to purchase lists of previous attendees […] Read more »
The Trump, Fiorina, Carson Coalition
There are currently 16 Republicans seeking 2016 presidential nomination, but the easier way to understand the field is by breaking it in two: the three outsider candidates grabbing the poll numbers and attention (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina) and everyone else. Breaking down the group with that lens […] Read more »
Carly Fiorina Gets a Lift From Iowans After Debate
Carly Fiorina hit a walk-off homer, helium is leaking from Ben Carson’s balloon and Scott Walker’s candidacy is on life support, according to the Republicans in Iowa who will cast the first votes of the nominating contest in less than five months. Oh, and Donald J. Trump is still Donald […] Read more »
Battleground Tracker: Trump leads GOP field in IA, NH, SC
Showing no signs of a slowdown heading into the fall, Donald Trump leads the Republican Presidential field in each of the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Trump’s lead in New Hampshire is especially large and he’s up double-digits in South Carolina. In Iowa, it’s become […] Read more »
In An Era Of Trump, Do Campaign Fundamentals Matter?
At this point, it feels like we are in some kind of an alternative universe election where up is down, black is white and east is west. … Should we throw out all we know (or thought we knew) about politics? Do the so-called fundamentals we’ve all taken as political […] Read more »