Last month I wrote what I called my New Year’s “irresolutions” – a set of observations on the Democratic field that I cloaked in uncertainty. I promised to come back and identify those that were wrong. There are two standouts in that regard: (1) Joe Biden’s staying power is far […] Read more »
A contested convention looks even more possible after New Hampshire
The 2020 New Hampshire primary is in the books, and one of the messiest primaries in recent history seemingly got even messier. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders did win as expected. He remains the national front runner in polling and fundraising. But Sanders got just 26% of the vote and finished […] Read more »
The Moderate Pileup, and the Sanders Path to the Nomination
The results of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests amount to a strategic victory for Bernie Sanders, fracturing his opposition and opening a path for him to win the nomination. But the results do not leave him in a dominant position. His support in national polls remains in the low-to-mid […] Read more »
Today may mark the end of the Iowa-New Hampshire monopoly
Tuesday’s primary in this Northeastern state may mark the final day of nearly 50 years of unparalleled influence for Iowa and New Hampshire as the one-two kickoff contests in the Democratic presidential nominating process. In this year’s presidential campaign, the distorting effects of providing such power to two virtually all-white […] Read more »
The 2020 Democrats All Have the Same Problem
Like last week’s muddled Iowa caucus, tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary may reveal as much about the limits of the leading Democratic candidates as it does their strengths. The results from Iowa, polls in New Hampshire, and surveys of Democrats beyond those states all point toward the same conclusion: So far, […] Read more »
How the Iowa Caucuses Became an Epic Fiasco for Democrats
… As disastrous as the 2020 Iowa caucuses have appeared to the public, the failure runs deeper and wider than has previously been known, according to dozens of interviews with those involved. It was a total system breakdown that casts doubt on how a critical contest on the American political […] Read more »