The voters of Iowa and New Hampshire jealously guard their first-in-the-nation franchise in the presidential nomination process, and they view themselves as the public’s screening committees for White House wannabes. … In 2016 it will be a shock if Iowa and/or New Hampshire don’t rearrange the presidential playing field. After […] Read more »
It’s Cruz vs. Trump and Rubio vs. Carson in Home-Stretch Iowa Poll
Less than three weeks before Iowa caucus-goers cast the first votes of the 2016 presidential election, the Republican contest in the crucial first heat has boiled down to two neck-and-neck races, one between U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Donald Trump and another between U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of […] Read more »
Polling numbers show Sanders and Clinton in a dead heat in Iowa
Something is stirring among Iowa Democrats. In the four surveys of likely Democratic caucus-goers conducted between December 7th and December 21st, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by an average of 13 points, 50 to 37. In the four surveys of likely caucus-attenders taken between […] Read more »
Who’s Winning Iowa And New Hampshire?
We launched our forecasts for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries today. For much more detail about how this all works, you can read here. But our premise is that, given the challenges inherent in predicting the primaries, we’ll be publishing two models instead of pretending we’ve found a […] Read more »
Talking About Trump May Pay Off on Television, But . . .
It’s getting increasingly annoying to watch people who ostensibly know a lot about politics going on television and saying things that I am reasonably sure they don’t really believe. Lately, it has been analysts talking up Donald Trump’s chances of winning the GOP nomination. What viewers are hearing from pros […] Read more »
Neck-And-Neck 2016 Races in Iowa, New Hampshire
Three weeks until the first presidential nominating contest, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running neck and neck in Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are also locked in a tight race in the Hawkeye State. What’s more, Clinton and Sanders are within the margin of error in New […] Read more »