… Over the past two weeks, six polls released nationally, and in Iowa and New Hampshire—the critical first two states—show Trump’s support converging with noticeably little variation at around one-third of the Republican vote. Each of those polls shows Trump leading his rivals. Four polls released Tuesday morning also largely […] Read more »
How Much Can Really Change Before Iowa Votes
The tremendous buildup to the Iowa caucuses is about to culminate in real voting. We’re less than a week away. But anything can still happen … there’s still plenty of time … right? Sort of. CONT. Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Why a Trump Victory in Iowa Would Matter So Much
Ted Cruz was thought to be an easy favorite in Iowa. Now it’s not nearly as clear. … There’s still a lot of time before the caucuses on Feb. 1. The debate on Thursday could change things, as could the belated airing of attacks on Mr. Trump from Mr. Cruz’s […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Sanders narrows gap in Iowa
Bernie Sanders now sits within striking distance of front-runner Hillary Clinton in Iowa, according to the latest Fox News Poll. At the same time, Clinton is still ahead among likely Democratic caucus-goers, and leads among those who “definitely” plan to attend — as well as those who have participated in […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders’s Big Turnout Problem: He’s Reliant on Infrequent Voters
It’s common to talk about the turnout challenge facing Donald Trump, who clearly fares well among those who don’t vote regularly. But the candidate with the biggest turnout challenge in this cycle is probably Bernie Sanders. Mr. Sanders appears to be extraordinarily dependent on turnout from infrequent voters, even more […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Trump gains in Iowa, still dominates in New Hampshire
With just over a week until the first 2016 election contest, Donald Trump takes the lead in Iowa — and maintains his big advantage in New Hampshire. That’s according to the latest round of Fox News state polls on the Republican presidential nomination contest. CONT. Dana Blanton, Fox News Read more »