… The dominoes will begin falling after the Iowa caucuses Monday night. It seems to me there are four basic narratives that could emerge from the state. (By “narratives,” I mean how the media, Republican party elites and the other candidates will interpret the results. Be warned: How the media […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Is Making Surprising Gains With Less Affluent Whites
Bernie Sanders’s coalition once looked very familiar: He had strong support among well-educated and affluent liberal white voters of the sort who backed Barack Obama, Bill Bradley and Jerry Brown. He struggled among less affluent voters. But his coalition has evolved over the last few months. He now fares much […] Read more »
What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa?
If you’re dreaming of Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton, you know how the movie begins (he wins Iowa on Monday), how it ends (he accepts the nomination to a Simon & Garfunkel tune), and one of the major plot lines (black, Hispanic and moderate Democrats, who for now prefer Clinton […] Read more »
In the Iowa caucuses, look for results that surprise you
… The Iowa Caucuses on Monday night can be expected to provide some clarity in the contests for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, but don’t expect too much. One way to look at the results is to think of what outcomes would surprise you, and change your assumptions about […] Read more »
Republicans and Democrats Brace for a Reality Check
American presidential campaigns have never been so thoroughly examined, probed and measured as in this election cycle. And the pollsters and pundits who cover them are about to get a reality check. The Iowa caucuses on Monday and the New Hampshire primary eight days later will begin to do what […] Read more »
What Would The Republican Race Look Like Without Trump?
If the debate in South Carolina two weeks ago represented the Republican primary in microcosm, this one was like a randomized control trial: What would the GOP primary look like without Donald Trump? CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »