On Monday, Iowa voters did something that Republican “party elites” had failed to do for more than seven months: They rejected Donald Trump. … It’s not uncommon for the polls to be off in Iowa and other early-voting states, but the manner in which Trump underachieved is revealing. It turns […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa
Sometimes votes have clear outcomes and sometimes they don’t. Monday’s Iowa Democratic caucuses are an example of the latter. Hillary Clinton seems to have barely beaten Bernie Sanders in the closest Iowa Democratic caucus ever after holding a small lead in most Iowa polls before the caucuses. That means Iowa […] Read more »
The bad news for Cruz: His Iowa win looks very similar to Huckabee’s and Santorum’s
Ted Cruz’s Iowa victory was a surprise, after the final polls showed him trailing Donald Trump. But Cruz also followed a very familiar path to victory in the Hawkeye State: heavy reliance on strong conservatives and evangelical Christians — and not on first-time caucus-goers. CONT. Scott Clement, Kevin Uhrmacher & […] Read more »
What We Learned From Iowa
Iowa is in the books, and we already have our first surprise: Ted Cruz confounded late polls showing him sliding and Donald Trump rising. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders battled to a near-tie. Last week, we asked five questions about what the Iowa results might tell us. What did […] Read more »
Trump, the GOP’s spleen, is ripe for surgery
The Iowa caucuses might have been called the Iowa carcasses. Both parties saw a race between body parts: the head versus the heart. … The Iowa results mean that the races in both parties could go on for a while. The Republican establishment is thrilled to see Trump get his […] Read more »
How pollsters got Iowa wrong
Donald Trump led almost all of the polls leading up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses – just ask him. … So why did the public polls – including the gold-standard Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll – miss Cruz’s victory? There are some clues buried in the election results and […] Read more »