Hillary Clinton’s close call in Iowa has given her new reason to reflect on the old adage that history repeats itself—first as tragedy, then as farce. … But whether or not Sanders ultimately defeats Clinton, he has quickly spotlighted a glaring weakness in her candidacy: an inspiration gap, particularly among […] Read more »
What we can and can’t learn from the Iowa caucuses
If the Iowa caucus results were findings from a political poll, most people would see that they told us little about how the political winds were blowing. This is not just because Iowa caucus goers are unlikely to reflect the views of citizens nation-wide; there is a good chance that […] Read more »
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
Marco Rubio finished in third in Iowa — a “strong third” in which he outperformed his polls, but third nevertheless. And yet, his chances of winning the Republican nomination nearly doubled according to the bookmaker Betfair, from about 30 percent before the Iowa caucuses to 55 percent now. Meanwhile, Donald […] Read more »
The Great Democratic Age Gap
Bernie Sanders answered two important questions with his strong showing in Iowa. But, despite his impressive finish, he’ll need to answer two more to truly threaten Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination. The most powerful lesson from the Iowa caucus results is that Democrats are facing not just a […] Read more »
A stark dividing line in the Clinton-Sanders contest: Age 45
While Hillary Clinton barely edged Bernie Sanders to win the Iowa caucuses, one thing became clear Monday night: The race for the Democratic nomination is turning into a battle of the ages. The dividing line was 45 years old — voters that age or older went decisively for Clinton, while […] Read more »
Tuesday morning quarterbacking the Iowa Poll
Monday night was a thriller, no doubt about it. Of course, the outcome of the Republican caucuses was not identical to the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll published Saturday night. We had the top four candidates identified, all right. But we had Donald Trump with the win over […] Read more »