Of the two winners of the Iowa caucuses, who’s the better behavioral scientist, Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton? To judge from their campaigns’ respective “get out the vote” efforts, both politicians seem to have studied up on recent research in the field. CONT. Todd Rogers & Adan Acevedo (Harvard Kennedy […] Read more »
The Way Ted Cruz Won in Iowa Suggests Trouble Ahead
Ted Cruz kept his hopes alive with a come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses this week. But the way he won raises serious questions about his chances later on. He won Iowa for one reason: He excelled among people who described themselves as “very conservative.” … The national Republican primary […] Read more »
Iowa: Late Vote Swing Led to Cruz Win
A significant number of Republican caucus-goers changed their minds over the final few days of the Iowa campaign – enough to account for the difference between pre-election polling and the actual result. The Monmouth University Poll re-contacted a panel of likely voters who took part in its final Iowa poll […] Read more »
Clinton’s Iowa Performance Reveals New Fault Lines for Democrats
… The Democratic Party has historically been described as diverse and disorganized — a patchwork of interests and demographic groups who jostle for control of the party agenda. But after the 2008 Iowa caucuses, it was hard to paint a clear picture of what distinguished the supporters of the three […] Read more »
Top Clinton Strategist Says Iowa Was a Real Win
After a razor-thin victory in Iowa, Hillary Clinton’s senior strategist, Joel Benenson, dismissed those who are trying to diminish her first-place finish in the caucuses. CONT. Betsy Fischer Martin & Tammy Haddad, Bloomberg Politics Read more »
The Necessary Imperfection of Early Primary Polling
… For those shocked by the GOP results, take heart: Iowa is notoriously fickle, and not even top pollsters firmly predicted a win for Trump or Cruz, despite assumptions to the contrary. And it’d be wise to steel yourself for more unpredictability in the minutes, hours, and days leading up […] Read more »