If there is a path to the White House for Donald Trump, it almost certainly will follow roads like Interstate 75, 80, and 94 that rumble through the big battleground states across the Rust Belt. Large Rust Belt prizes such as Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would be indispensable […] Read more »
Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons From Iowa and New Hampshire
… Despite their small populations, tiny numbers of national convention delegates and racially homogeneous electorates, the national parties continue to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to exert an outsized influence on the selection of the presidential nominees by kicking off the primary and caucus season. Because they go first and […] Read more »
Similarities, differences in Iowa, NH
The first two nominating events of this election cycle, Iowa and New Hampshire, produced different winners in both parties. Why? It wasn’t an intervening event or an issue that played importantly in one locale but not the other. Some claim the differences derive from the varying demographics of the two […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Needs To Win The Voters She Lost In 2008
Just as in 2008, Tuesday’s New Hampshire’s primary created an “a-ha moment,” illuminating the contours of each Democratic candidate’s coalition. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that Hillary Clinton is relying on a coalition that looks almost the opposite of the one she assembled in 2008. Eight years ago, she prevailed among […] Read more »
Three of the Missing Storylines from Iowa and New Hampshire
There are just some basic things that have really struck me that do not seem to be getting a lot of attention. The tables below talk about turnout and have an observation about 18 to 29 year old voters. CONT. Bill McInturff, Public Opinion Strategies Read more »
Opinion Polls Matter—Even When They’re Wrong
Given that opinion polls failed to predict the result of the Republican caucus in Iowa, it might be wise not to place too much stress on what they’re saying about the New Hampshire primaries tomorrow night. We can’t simply ignore the polls, though. Often, they turn out be right, or […] Read more »