It may be nearly nine months until the first balloting of the 2020 primary, but candidates are already practically tripping over one another in Iowa. … The reason is clear: With 20-some Democrats running for president, there are far more candidates — especially ones counting on strong results in Iowa […] Read more »
A New Study Confirms (Again) That Race, Not Economics, Drove Former Democrats To Trump
… “Economic distress is not a significant factor in explaining the shift in Iowa voters from Democrat to Republican between 2008 and 2016,” write Iowa State University sociologists Ann Oberhauser, Daniel Krier, and Abdi Kusow. “The election outcomes do not signify [a revolt] among working-class voters left behind by globalization.” […] Read more »
Buying a Ticket Out of Iowa – Online
The Iowa caucuses help frame who is a contender for the nomination, which is especially important in such a large Democratic field. Historically, there are “three tickets out of Iowa.” Only once in recent political history has anyone become President without a top-three finish in the Iowa caucuses (although a […] Read more »
Here’s why you can’t discount Joe Biden’s early polling lead
A big question surrounding Joe Biden’s likely candidacy is whether his polling lead is built upon merely being well known. If it is, then you can expect other candidates to pass him once voters become more familiar with them. After all, Biden is a former vice president, and most of […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s And Bernie Sanders’s Support Isn’t Just About Name Recognition
If you’re a longtime reader of FiveThirtyEight, you’ll know that the early stage of the presidential primary process is a tricky one for us to cover. It’s tempting to put a lot of emphasis on shiny objects with numbers attached — polls, endorsement counts, fundraising totals — especially given our […] Read more »
Name recognition is key and four other takeaways from our Iowa poll
The latest CNN/Des Moines Register/MediaCom 2020 Iowa poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden continuing to lead the pack with 27% and Sen. Bernie Sanders close behind with 25%. Sanders is up from our last poll, though the relative order remains the same. No other candidate reaches double-digits. But beyond […] Read more »