The first Democratic debate reshaped the presidential field in Iowa as support surged for California Sen. Kamala Harris, undercutting the standing of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and raising questions about the solidity of former Vice President Joe Biden’s front-runner status. In a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll, Biden continues to […] Read more »
PollerCoaster 2020: The Electability Puzzle
After the trauma of the 2016 election, it’s natural that prospective Democratic primary voters are fixated on nominating the presidential candidate they believe to be the most electable. But it is increasingly apparent that these voters have formed questionable impressions of what constitutes electability, and in many cases, thrown their […] Read more »
Creating high-quality polls is incredibly hard. 2020 rule changes aren’t helping.
We’re officially in the part of the primary season where, even if pollsters can’t tell us for certain what will happen in 2020, polling starts to have consequences. … But despite the importance of the polls, many political junkies — and even some candidates themselves — don’t understand exactly what […] Read more »
CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Biden leads, with Warren, Harris, Sanders close behind
The belief that he could fare best against President Trump is currently propelling Joe Biden in the early Democratic nomination race by two measures — vote preference, and the delegates that would come with them. But others — including Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders — are in the mix, at […] Read more »
To beat Biden, his rivals must win in Iowa and New Hampshire
A new Monmouth University Nevada Democratic caucuses poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads with 36%. … The big question for most of the 2020 Democratic presidential field is how to beat front-runner Biden. One obvious way is to change the entire national trajectory of the race. That […] Read more »
Trump or a Democrat? Eastern Iowa ponders its presidential choice.
Eastern Iowa is home to industrial riverfront cities, small towns surrounded by verdant farmland and a consequential number of voters who were inspired to vote for both Barack Obama and Donald Trump. And unlike many of the president’s Republican supporters, who could never imagine voting for a Democrat, many of […] Read more »