… Biden’s candidacy is perplexing to analysts because he’s clearly a front-runner (i.e. he leads in every poll), but he’s not running away with the primary. This is true nationally (where he’s hovered around 30%) and is especially the case in Iowa, where he’s polling lower. Based solely on the […] Read more »
The four charts to keep in mind when you look at early-primary polling
… It’s all interesting and the stakes are obviously enormous. It’s just that … we might want to be wary about reading too much into things. Since 2008, the states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have held 15 party primary contests. Of those 15, only five times were […] Read more »
The Iowa Caucus Is a Frontrunners’ Nightmare
This week was the start of the Iowa State Fair. Besides being one of the few places in America where you can eat fried Oreos AND watch a baby pig being born, the Iowa State Fair is also the unofficial kick-off to campaign season in the state. Presidential candidates swarm […] Read more »
What Iowa’s Best Pollster Thinks About 2020
Right now, many of the Democratic primary candidates are traveling through Iowa, shaking hands with voters as they make their way to the Iowa State Fair. In the coming days, just about every candidate running for president will stop by the Des Moines Register soapbox to give a stump speech. […] Read more »
Biden’s Biggest Weakness? Iowa. But Some Rivals Don’t Seem to Know It.
… The cause of Mr. Biden’s weakness in Iowa is fairly obvious: His national edge is mainly attributable to a wide advantage among black voters, and relatively speaking, there aren’t many black voters in Iowa. African-Americans represented a mere 4 percent of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 supporters in Iowa, according to […] Read more »
What we can learn from the 2004 presidential race
Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race. An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority) […] Read more »