There is a new Democratic front-runner in Iowa, and his name is Pete Buttigieg. The mayor of South Bend, Indiana, holds a clear lead in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, climbing to 25% in a new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers. That marks a 16-point increase in support […] Read more »
Buttigieg’s Big Break
This week, we discuss Michael Bloomberg’s possible entrance into the 2020 race, the momentum behind Pete Buttigieg’s boost in Iowa, and how the televised impeachment hearings may influence voters. The Forecast Fest, CNN Read more »
The picture in Iowa just got muddier, not clearer
For all of the legitimate (and occasionally overblown) hand-wringing about “horse race” coverage of national politics, it is a lamentable fact that horse racing generally offers a good analogy for polling. … On Tuesday afternoon, Monmouth University gave us a new snapshot of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination […] Read more »
Trump vs. ?? — Swing State Edition
This week, we discuss head-to-head match-ups between President Trump and top Democratic candidates in key swing states. Then we dissect Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s Medicare-for-all plan, and the polling around Medicare-for-all. Finally, we look at new caucus polling out of Iowa and Nevada, and examine a few results from Election Day […] Read more »
It’s A Free-For-All In Iowa
Tomorrow is Election Day, and FiveThirtyEight will be watching competitive races in a number of states. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the governors races in Kentucky and Mississippi and state legislative elections in Virginia. Next, the team takes a look at the latest in […] Read more »
Message Morphs and the Fifth Debate
The Iowa Democratic Party Liberty and Justice (LJ) dinner is a marker in the nomination process as candidates have the opportunity to show off their organizations and message positioning. New polling suggests shifting allegiances. With just 90 days before the caucuses, the shape of the race matters more now than […] Read more »