… After a year of campaigning, and with less than a month to go before the first and therefore most important single contest in the Democratic nomination fight, few if any are confident of the outcome. At least four candidates are seen as having a shot to win Iowa, or, […] Read more »
With A Month To Go Before Iowa And New Hampshire, Anything Can Happen
Democrats all want one thing: to beat Donald Trump. The problem is, they can’t agree on who’s best to do that. … So what’s the state of play a month out? How predictive are Iowa and New Hampshire for who becomes the Democratic nominee? And should we even pay attention […] Read more »
New Year’s Irresolutions and the Democratic Field
This post gives my end of the year thoughts on the Democratic field. I am writing it so we can all look back in a few months and see how wrong it was, and, indeed, many factors provide uncertainty about what the next few months will bring. Certainly many of […] Read more »
These two candidates are best positioned to be this election’s ‘Iowa cyclone’
Want to know who will win the Iowa Democratic caucuses in five weeks? Don’t look to the current polls: Look for this election’s Iowa cyclone. An “Iowa cyclone” — the name is derived from the nickname of Iowa State University’s athletic teams — is a candidate who rises dramatically in […] Read more »
Why we don’t really know who is ahead in Iowa right now
Poll of the week: There’s no poll of the week because there’s been a dearth of polling for the all-important Iowa Democratic caucuses. … Iowa’s a little more than a month away, and we don’t really know who is ahead, let alone who is going to win. Our lack of […] Read more »
Iowa swung fiercely to Trump. Will it swing back in 2020?
Few states have changed politically with the head-snapping speed of Iowa. In 2008, its voters propelled Barack Obama to the White House, an overwhelmingly white state validating the candidacy of the first black president. … By 2016, Donald Trump easily defeated Hillary Clinton in Iowa. … But now, as Democrats […] Read more »