The Iowa caucuses are three weeks away. It’s worth taking a look at recent history to get a sense of how fluid the dynamic is in this period before live voters show up. The answer is: It depends. I looked at polling numbers three weeks out from the 2016, 2012, […] Read more »
Amy Klobuchar is Iowa’s biggest wild card
For most of the primary, “anything can happen” has been the mantra of reporters, analysts and pundits alike. But that’s not really true anymore. The top-tier candidates – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg – all have real support in early states and a plausible path to […] Read more »
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
The latest polling in Iowa shows a tight, four-way race just three weeks away from caucus day. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew updates their thinking about who is likely to win there, and about how a win in Iowa could affect the rest of the […] Read more »
Another new poll makes clear what will happen in Iowa: No one knows
… Over the past several days, two major polls of Iowa have been released. At a glance, they seem to offer starkly different pictures of what’s likely to happen in next month’s caucuses. A poll from CNN, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, conducted by Selzer & Co., has Sen. […] Read more »
Recent Poll May Be Underestimating Bernie Sanders’s Strength in Iowa
Two of the nation’s best pollsters have recently weighed in on the state of the Iowa Democratic race, with very different results. One subtle methodological choice might explain part of the difference, and on balance there is reason to think Bernie Sanders might be a bit stronger in one of […] Read more »
Iowa poll: Likely Democratic caucusgoers are fired up by the election but also exhausted by politics
Majorities of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they’re optimistic, fired up, feminists and … exhausted by politics. A new poll from CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom finds fewer soon-to-be caucus attendees consider themselves socialists than capitalists, and almost a quarter are regular Twitter users. CONT. Grace Sparks, CNN Read more »