On Monday night, February 3, 2020, Iowans will flock to school auditoriums, union halls, community centers and even a few private homes in 1,681 precincts across the state of Iowa to give us the first glimpse of how real voters feel about the race for the Democratic nomination for president. […] Read more »
The Forecast before Iowans Caucus
This week, as the Iowa caucuses loom, we break down a flurry of new polls. Plus, we discuss why it’s difficult to predict who will win in Iowa, and which candidates have an advantage going into the caucuses. The Forecast Fest Read more »
With Iowa and New Hampshire still up in the air, Democratic race has 2016 echoes
… Given the wildly conflicting polls (and the difficulty in polling caucus attendees), we still can’t be certain who’ll win Iowa, what the order of finish will be or what the margins between candidates will look like. So there is a lot up in the air. On the other hand, […] Read more »
Why expectations matter in Iowa
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders could be surging at just the right time. He’s ahead in some of the highest quality polls coming out of Iowa with a week to go until the caucuses. History suggests that a win in Iowa could allow Sanders to take the lead in the national […] Read more »
The Sanders Surge
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses Sen. Bernie Sanders’s improvement in state and national polls just one week before the Iowa caucuses. They also debate whether reporting on former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s new book will pressure Republican senators to call witnesses in President […] Read more »
The Media Expectations Game Usually Hurts Nomination Front-Runners, But Not in 2020
The history of presidential nomination politics suggests that it’s a mixed blessing for a candidate to be considered a front-runner by the national media heading into the primary and caucus season. Of course, it’s better to be doing well in polls and fundraising, the usual metrics of pre-primary success, than […] Read more »