It was the biggest polling miss in a presidential election in decades. Yet in many ways, it wasn’t wholly out of the ordinary. Over all, the national polls missed the result by only a few points: Hillary Clinton is on track to win the popular vote by around 1.5 percentage […] Read more »
7 Reasons Donald Trump Won The Presidential Election
The dust is starting to settle in Washington and around the country after an election that stunned political watchers and pollsters. Here are seven things we’ve learned about Donald Trump’s path to victory Tuesday night: CONT. Domenico Montanaro, NPR Read more »
The advertising decisions that helped doom Hillary Clinton
… Strategic decisions can make all the difference in a close race. Clinton lost the White House (despite winning the popular vote) to Republican Donald Trump on the strength of about 100,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That is the definition of a close race. But a review of […] Read more »
The polls didn’t fail. We just chose to ignore the math
There’s a lot of talk right now that polling failed. But Trump’s win was hardly an unpredictable “black swan” event. All the evidence was there, if you knew how to read it. In fact, the polls did ok, 2016 was not even a particularly large miss by historical standards. … […] Read more »
Why Women Did Not Unite to Vote Against Donald Trump
Women were predicted to come out in force to vote for the first female president and against a man who demeaned them and bragged about sexual assault. Instead, they voted more or less as they always have: along party lines. The share of women who voted for Donald J. Trump […] Read more »
Why identity politics couldn’t clinch a Clinton win
Many Democrats have believed that a coalition of minorities, millennials and single women would help create a new Democratic majority for years to come. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign was counting on it. But the “rising American electorate,” as it’s called, failed to carry Clinton across the finish line. It didn’t […] Read more »