There is no conceivable way that FBI Director James Comey’s last-minute update to Congress about the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server was beneficial to her. It was never likely to sway a lot of opinions, given that most attitudes on the subject had been formulated well before voting began […] Read more »
Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
The Issues and Leaders model predicts the national popular two-party vote in US presidential elections from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue-handling competence and leadership qualities. In previous elections from 1972 to 2012, the model’s Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one […] Read more »
The Gist podcast: The Fault in Our Polls
FiveThirtyEight’s @ForecasterEnten explains polling error, and Princeton’s @julianzelizer puts the 2016 election in historical context. CONT. Mike Pesca, The Gist Read more »
Why Trump won: It was fundamental!
… As it turned out, however, the political science models – looked at in the aggregate, (which is how I typically made my prediction every four years) – were spot on in 2016. As of today, with votes still coming in, Clinton has won about 50.2% of the popular vote […] Read more »
The Hillary Clinton of 2000 would have beaten Donald Trump
It was a sunny day on Daniel Moynihan’s farm in July 1999 when Hillary Clinton first launched her own political career and months later she would officially announce her candidacy for the U.S. Senate as a New Democrat. She extolled the values of “opportunity, community, responsibility and enterprise.” … She […] Read more »
74% Call Election Legitimate, But With a Vast Partisan Divide
Nearly three-quarters of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll accept Donald Trump’s election as legitimate — but with a vast gap between his supporters and others that underscores the nation’s continued deep political divisions. CONT. Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »