After missing multiple self-imposed deadlines, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the conflict within the Democratic Party over who that pick should be and why the campaign has floated disparate and […] Read more »
Shy Trump Voters Depressing His Poll Numbers?
… Political pendulums can swing back forth quickly and so can polls. But one issue that has surfaced in the news media after some state polling failures in 2016 is the claim of the “shy Trump voter.” This is the assertion by some pundits and politicians that polls undercount Trump’s […] Read more »
The Missing Group of Voters in 2020
… This year, pollsters seem to agree that President Donald Trump has been leaking support among several groups who supported him four years ago, including suburban, college-educated voters; voters over the age of 65 who are understandably quite concerned about the pandemic; and even white, blue-collar voters who have been […] Read more »
Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak
Election Day is now just three months away, and the overall trajectory of the race hasn’t changed much recently: Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump. Biden is now up by 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, and he has an advantage of 5 […] Read more »
Sorry, Republicans. The polls really are that bad.
Many Republicans are responding with disbelief to polls showing President Trump well behind former vice president Joe Biden nationally and in all the swing states. Some say the polls are undercounting Republicans, while others cite 2016 as evidence that the polls are just wrong. Sadly, neither explanation holds water. … […] Read more »
The polls show Biden is a clear favorite 100 days out from an unprecedented election
Believe it or not, we’re now 100 days and 15 hours from the 2020 election. As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. A look at history reveals that while Biden’s clearly […] Read more »