On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters show Keiran Rob and Leo look back at 2016 and discuss the results from the recent survey of PB/Polling Matters listeners. We discuss what our biggest shock of 2016 was, who the biggest winners and losers were from the year and our […] Read more »
Why the white working class votes against itself
Why did all those Economically Anxious™ Trump voters reject policies that would have helped relieve their economic anxiety? Maybe they believed any Big Government expansions would disproportionately go to the “wrong” kinds of people — that is, people unlike themselves. … We’ve known for a long time, through the work […] Read more »
How Much Did Wikileaks Hurt Hillary Clinton?
How did Hillary Clinton blow a 7-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump in the final month of the campaign? Much of the post-election analysis has revolved around FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Oct. 28. Less attention was spent on the role that Wikileaks played. Until, that is, news […] Read more »
How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for Trump
… It was clear from the start that Mrs. Clinton was struggling to reassemble the Obama coalition. At every point of the race, Mr. Trump was doing better among white voters without a college degree than Mitt Romney did in 2012 — by a wide margin. Mrs. Clinton was also […] Read more »
How pollsters could use social media data to improve election forecasts
Donald Trump’s Nov. 8 victory surprised almost everyone. But if pollsters had looked at Twitter, they might have recognized that the race was close — or so we learned in our recent research. Even when polls were showing a big lead for Hillary Clinton, real-time analysis of social media was […] Read more »
Americans Support Congressional Inquiry into Russian Hack
High-profile Republican stalwarts John McCain and Lindsay Graham have contradicted President-elect Donald Trump’s dismissal of CIA conclusions that Russia interfered in the US presidential election. The two senators issued a statement along with Democrats Jack Reed and Charles Schumer calling for a special committee to investigate the Russian cyberattacks. In […] Read more »